An Incomplete Information Static Game Interpretation of the 1st Price Auction

 

We can analyze the first price auction using the machinery of the static game with incomplete information.  We’ll do it from Kristy’s perspective.  She knows her own type, but is uncertain of Sutheby’s type.

 

Kristy will never submit a bid below μ.  If she were to do so then she would surely lose.  The same goes for Sutheby.  Since she will never submit a bid below μ, that is her minimum bid.  We’ll also allow her to submit a higher bid in the amount b.  The same goes for Sutheby. When Kristy submits a bid in the amount bK against a bid by Sutheby in the amount bS there is a probability p that her bid wins, and a probability q that his bid wins. The payoffs in the two games are expected payoffs.

 

 

Sutheby

 

bS

 

bS

Kristy

 

bK

 

 

Sutheby can be either one of two types.  For each type he has two possible actions.  Therefore, from Kristy’s perspective he has four strategic plans.  With this in mind we can write the normal form of the game as:

 

 

 

Sutheby

 

 

bS, bS

Kristy

bK

 

Sutheby’s second strategy of  is seen to weakly dominate his fourth strategy of bS, bS .  His first strategy of  is seen to weakly dominate his third strategy.  Sutheby’s first strategy is not credible since he would never bid μ when he is a θ – type. Therefore, Kristy believes that he will play his second strategic plan.  If μ and bK are both to be best responses to a play of   by Sutheby then the associated payoffs must be equal.

 

If you solve for p then you will get the earlier result for the probability with which Kristy will win when she plays the strategy bK.